Tag Archives: statistics

Divorce Rates are Declining, and Why Stats are Overrated

One of the biggest myths I frequently hear reported is that half of all marriages end in divorce. Analysts at McCrindle Research report that the divorce rate is one in three, not one in two.  “Marriages are actually doing better these days and the divorce rates are declining and have been for more than 30 years,” says social analyst Mark McCrindle.

The “one in two marriages will fail” is an example of a myth perpetuated by careless reporting of statistics. McCrindle says myths become accepted because the numbers give them “an element of believability.”

What harm is there to believing incorrect facts about marriage? Plenty. Couples enter marriage with lower expectations when they hear divorce rates of 50 percent and higher. Some decide it’s not even worth the risk of marriage, because they fear divorce is inevitable. I hear many young people questioning why they would get married when they lived through a family breakdown and/or hear the difficult odds of marital success. And others decide not to fight for their marriage or commit during difficulties, because they don’t believe they will succeed “against the odds.” Incorrect stats can therefore lead to lower marriage rates and higher divorce rates.

Research was carried out by the Australian Bureau of Statistics-based research to disprove five commonly accepted, but incorrect assumptions often heard in daily life. Two of the assumptions related to marriage. Other than the divorce rate, the other myth relates to the “seven-year itch” when people believe most divorces occur. In fact, researchers say divorce comes after an average of 12.3 years. To read about the other myths, read the Herald Sun article here.

Keep in mind that “on average” means that many last longer, and many don’t last as long. If many couples divorce in the first year, that brings the average marriage length way down. If a “median” is reported, that means half of the cases fall above this time period, and half fall below it. It doesn’t mean that time period for divorce is the most frequent.

 The U.S. Census reports that roughly one in five adults has ever been divorced.

What’s the point?

The takeaway is read/share your data with a skeptical eye, and to not perpetuate myths like “half of all marriages end in divorce.” Plenty of people complain about the difficulties of marriage, but if you have a strong marriage, don’t be shy about encouraging others. Be a positive voice for marriage where you work, in your church, in your home, and your words will have a ripple effect. Share blog posts with a couple who might find them helpful, along with a short email. Or consider mentoring a younger couple if you have a strong marriage.

If you know a couple who is planning to get married, realize that they are hearing many negative comments about the odds of their eventual success. Counter that with loving comments and positivity. No couple wants to be a part of a statistic; they want to know their union is unique and celebrated.

Lori Lowe is the author of First Kiss to Lasting Bliss: Hope & Inspiration for Your Marriage. The book tells the true stories that demonstrate that marriage can thrive even in the most difficult circumstances. Learn from 12 inspiring couples who experienced child loss, infidelity, drug addiction, cancer, financial crises, brain injury, stranger rape, military service, infertility, opposing religions, unsupportive families, interracial relationships, raising special-needs children, and much more. These couples found the pressures of life didn’t destroy them; instead, they crystallized their commitment to each other. Available from Amazon.com or at your favorite e-book retailer.

Photo by Photostock courtesy of Freedigitalphotos.net.